Each week for the Best Ever Round Table, the three Best Ever Show hosts — Ash Patel, Slocomb Reed, and Travis Watts — come together for a deep dive into a commercial real estate investing topic.
In this episode, Ash, Slocomb, and Travis share their opinions on whether there is a looming syndication bubble. They dive into whether they think it has become too easy to syndicate, their thoughts on future appreciation for multifamily syndication, future challenges they see for operators using bridge debt, what they think it will look like if the syndication bubble begins to unravel, and more.
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Ash Patel: Hello, Best Ever listeners. Welcome to the best real estate investing advice ever show. I'm Ash Patel and this is another round table with my co-hosts, Travis Watts and Slocomb Reed. Today, we're going to dive into the big question, is there a syndication bubble?
And Travis, I'm going to have you start. If you can give the Best Ever listeners a little bit about your background, and answer your opinion of if you think there's a looming syndication bubble.
Travis Watts: I feel like this was a targeted approach. So you just wait till I'm in control of my next episode; it's going to be "Is non-residential commercial a thing of the past?" Single-family, small multifamily—
Ash Patel: I'll be ready for you. I will be ready for you.
Travis Watts: I'm going to bust you guys' chops... Alright, hey, I'm Travis Watts, full-time passive investor, director of investor relations with Joe Fairless at Ashcroft Capital. Long story short, I'm very interested to get your guys' thoughts. This is the world that I play in full-time, so I'm going to go on a whim and say there's not a syndication bubble, and I'm going to give a lot of reasons for that, but happy to hear your viewpoints as well.
Ash Patel: You know what's funny, the three of us have such varied backgrounds, and we have different approaches to real estate. So these round tables become really interesting. I think today's episode will be exciting as well.
Slocomb, if you would, give the Best Ever listeners a little bit about your background, and your thoughts on if there's a looming syndication bubble.
Slocomb Reed: Hey, listeners. Slocomb Reed, apartment owner/operator in Cincinnati, Ohio. Is there a looming syndication bubble? I think pre-2022, the answer would have been, when we see a sharp spike in interest rates, we're going to see a lot of people with shorter hold period plans hit some turbulent waters, or some turbulent air with regards to cap rates needing to increase to match those interest rates, the ability to refi being a lot more expensive than people are planning. Syndication is not the space that I play in primarily, so my answer as we continue this conversation is going to be more about what are the things that we can do to prepare, and how is it that we can be ready for the changing economy? The short answer is yes, probably.
Ash Patel: This is Ash Patel. I am a full-time non-residential commercial investor. And my answer is the other extreme, I believe there is a syndication bubble. And one of the topics we're going to touch on today is that it has become so easy to become a syndicator. It's amazing how there's so many people out there - six months ago, they had a W-2 job that had nothing to do with real estate, and now they're raising $20 million to $30 million. I think it's a combination of it becoming very easy to get into the syndication game... There have been such great books written; Joe Fairless’ 400-page syndication Bible. I've literally interviewed people that have read that book and have become syndicators, which is awesome.
On the flip side, there's a lot of people doing syndications that I don't believe are qualified to invest other people's money. And if you look at some of the newer deals out there, a lot of them don't pencil out, yet people are raising money for it. So in terms of "Has it become too easy to syndicate?" Travis, your thoughts on that.
Travis Watts: Sure. It's a great topic. Here's my take on it. There's been a lot more exposure in terms of marketing and opportunities to get into these conferences or coaching programs, whatever you want to call them; masterminds... So I think the word has certainly gotten out that syndication is a thing in the first place. And I think, unfortunately, as part of marketing, the goal is always to make it intriguing, and sexy and simple. It's like, "Hey, you can go out there and buy your own apartment building," or "You can just simply raise money from other people and just share in the profits, and this is how you become a multimillionaire overnight." I think that's the problem. I think the marketing is the problem.
It’s the same proble if you look at the stock market and companies like Robinhood promoting the idea of commission-free trades, therefore they're promoting active day trading, which is usually not a great long-term strategy for most people statistically speaking, so it brings a lot of novices into the space. So that's kind of my take on it. I definitely want to dive more later into this conversation about actual deals that I'm seeing, about aggressive underwriting, about stuff like that. But from a high level, that's my answer, is a lot more marketing and exposure. But I wouldn't say it's any easier to syndicate a deal than it was 15 years ago. It takes a lot of work to go raise capital from other people and to be a general partner and to piece it all together.
Ash Patel: Slocomb, what are your thoughts on the ease of syndication these days?
Slocomb Reed: There are a couple of ways I want to come at this, Ash, and Best Ever listeners. One of them is that specific to the markets that I know, Cincinnati and some surrounding areas - I know Dayton pretty well - brokers have been able to sell deals effectively on pro forma instead of actuals. I know that hearing that is going to resonate with a lot of people working in acquisitions, especially in apartments, all over the country; and that has the expectation that you're buying on pro forma, instead of actuals. It has taken a lot of the older, savvier investors out of the market, likely, at least hopefully temporarily, but it's allowing brokers to sell more deals to newer investors.
I may not be saying that the right way; maybe what I should be saying is that it's the newer, less experienced people who are more willing to buy on pro forma, meaning buy based on an unproven future performance for the numbers that they're paying. So you're seeing a lot more newbies win bids, because they're willing to do that in a way that other people aren't.
I would say though, I think the biggest issue here - and Ash, tell me if I'm jumping the gun - but I think personally, coming from the long-term buy-and-hold active investor strategy, the biggest issue that I've had with syndication that I was grappling with 2-3 years ago is this something I want to do or not, is the necessity of a shorter or fixed-term hold period that necessitates a sale after three, five, or even seven years in order to deliver the returns to your investors that justify their investment in the first place. Or even necessitating a refinance three, five or seven years from now. Two, three years ago I didn't want to have to do that, because I didn't know where the market would be, and here we are, with interest rates up two percentage points from where they were 5-6 months ago.
Ash Patel: Slocomb, thank you. You brought up a really good point - future pro formas. I think a lot of people are continuing to chase appreciation, only because we've had a great run. And people that have purchased at five caps are now selling at four caps. People that purchased at 4, 4.5 caps have been able to sell in the high threes. And now I see people buying in the mid-three cap rates. And they have to know that at some point this is going to reverse. And with interest rates going up for the first time in a very long time, future cap rates might be heading the opposite direction; their exit caps might be 100 basis points higher. So your thoughts on future appreciation, for multifamily specifically.
Slocomb Reed: I'll jump in on this one. In my portfolio currently, the majority of my units are C-class on location. And I don't expect C-class workforce housing tenant basis to be all that impacted. Yes, they'll be impacted by inflation. Of course, everyone will be. But we're also still seeing intense wage growth in that sector.
There are incredibly few people who are paying cash for syndication-size apartment properties. So the vast majority of investors are relying on cost of debt as a big part of the returns that they can deliver. The higher cost of debt is going to decrease what buyers are willing to pay. I think there's an inevitability there.
With regards to the performance of our listeners' current portfolios, I have a feeling we're going to end up talking about bridge debt.
Ash Patel: That’s next.
Slocomb Reed: But Joe put it in his book that you always secure long-term fixed rate debt. And the economy we're experiencing now in early June 2022 is exactly why he put that in the book, and that's exactly why that's always a part of his plan. And that's why in late 2019, early 2020, and then again in 2021, I refinanced my smaller properties, the ones that qualify for residential 30-year fixed rate debt, to get that interest rate locked in for as long as possible, so that I knew if something like this happened; or if something like this impacted my smaller properties which are in higher income areas, that I'd be able to ride out a rent decrease, if such a thing were to happen.
So the long-term fixed rate debt - if that's what you've got on your current portfolio, if you don't have a need to sell or refi in the short term, this is a storm that you can ride out. The issue is that syndication often necessitates a liquidity event in the short term, and that's going to hurt some people.
Ash Patel: Yes. Slocomb, a lot of great points there, and we'll touch on some of those in our next question. Travis, your thoughts on the future appreciation for multifamily?
Travis Watts: Yeah, it was a great topic. I think it poses the question, you have to ask yourself, are you a speculator or are you an investor? And I've never been much of a speculator. I've made a lot of episodes on that and what the differences are; but basically, I've never been one as a passive limited partner in these syndications to put much emphasis on equity upside. And a lot of our listeners may not resonate with that, may not agree with that. I just never have. I've always looked at cash flow as this is the income stream that I'm investing in, I'm going to use this cash flow to live on. If that's an adequate amount, then maybe it makes sense, if I feel like it's conservatively underwritten. I've always been a huge advocate for whatever cap rate you're buying at, your exit cap rate is higher. I've never done a deal where it's the opposite, or the same. So of course, I still advocate the same stuff today.
So a lot of deals I'm going in at, say, it is a 3.5, a 4.5 cap or something like that, it's going to be a 5.5, a 6 cap on the backend, and we might actually realize that to be the case. And so again, you have to look at who's this operator, what's their track record, and what's their experience, and does this deal make sense to you? If you feel like you can go do your own deal, and that's something that you're interested in, and go get a 10% to 15% cash flow and a 30% IRR, maybe that's the right path for you. But these syndication deals, in my experience, at least the ones I'm still partnering in, still make sense for the foreseeable future. When I say that, I mean for the business plan that they are.
And to Slocomb’s point and to your point, Ash, I've been seeing a lot of my deals sell from 2021 to 2022. It's just happened, equity happened. A lot of people have met or exceeded pro forma in past deals. And now I'm forced to reevaluate. I’ve got all this liquidity and cash, I’ve got to go into something. So I'm heavily scrutinized and vetting, as we talk, these syndications. So that's my short answer.
Slocomb Reed: Follow-up question for Travis. With you still investing in syndication deals amidst this conversation that we're having and amidst this market, are you changing the way that you vet operators? Are you pickier now about who you'll invest with?
Travis Watts: I am. That's a great question. Some people may be familiar with my story and background, but when I first started, I threw money everywhere at the wall, because I didn't know who was who, and I didn't know what was going to work. And maybe as Warren Buffett would say, “I was diversifying against ignorance”, right? I just didn't know what I didn't know.
So over the years, I've gotten to learn now through my own experience, who's been a trusted, reputable operator that's had consistent great communication that's actually improved the NOI on these properties and not just "We bought this property, we happened to get this off-market sale on it, and then we happened to give a pretty stellar return to our investors.” It's time to look at who really performed in their business plans, and those are the only operators I'm investing with. And unfortunately, some of them don't have much deal flow, because they're being very picky. So I'm really sitting on more cash than I'm comfortable with, but I'm not going to rush into it and just do a deal to do a deal.
Ash Patel: A lot of good points. Thanks, Travis. We'll touch on some of those as well. Slocomb, you mentioned the cost of debt. I think there's two headwinds to look at with the cost of current debt. One is the easy one - rising interest rates. The other one is higher down payments for multifamily. In the past, if you were just doing straight finance, you can get away with 20% to 25% down. Today, a lot of lenders are requiring 35% down. Now, what does that do to all of those bridge debt loans, where they assumed that they would be able to refinance at 20% to 25% down, now they're at 35% down, and the interest rate could be 200 basis points higher than what they anticipated? That's going to be a huge challenge for a lot of operators that started their latest deal in the last three years. Bridge debt is typically 1-3 years, and I see a lot of challenges for those operators, and not an easy way out. Slocomb, your thoughts on that, please.
Slocomb Reed: I think the most powerful three words that you just said were “when they assumed.” I think assumption is the issue here. You're absolutely right. There's a part of me that salivates thinking about this, because I haven't bought into those deals myself personally... And I see when bridge debt, a three-year term from the last couple of years comes due, and people haven't been able to reach performance, or for whatever reason they decide they need to sell, and they recognize they're not going to be able to deliver that return, I'm going to have my pencil ready, I'm going to be writing LOI's, for sure.
And it's not just interest rates either. We're seeing bigger prepayment penalties come back as well. But yeah, absolutely. I was one of those people who did a cash-out refi on an apartment building at 80% last year, so I get it. I didn't go into that deal assuming I'd be able to get the kind of debt that I did. Assumption is what's going to hurt the most people here, about what future 2022 and 2023 would bring back the last couple of years. Yeah, it's going to hurt people. And hopefully, there are a lot of Best Ever listeners like us who are going to be poised to be buyers when those people have to sell.
Ash Patel: Slocomb, thank you.
Break: [00:17:31.19] to [00:19:16.26]
Ash Patel: Travis, your thoughts on the higher down payments mixed with bridge debt coming due, and the interest rates being much higher than probably a lot of people anticipated?
Travis Watts: Great points. Totally different market than 2008, 2009 and 2010, as far as lending is concerned. Even if we look at single family, just to use my own neighborhood, because I keep close tabs on it, a lot of cash buyers, a lot of very qualified buyers, a lot of 50% down this kind of crazy stuff, New York and New Jersey coming down to Florida, and stuff like that... Just a different market; it doesn't feel like -- to your point, at least 25% down, it seems like, on all these properties.
So there was a lot of talk in 2020 about if you had looked up the scary headlines and things and YouTube videos about, “There's going to be this massive flood of these foreclosure; get ready, because the housings about to drop 50%, there's going to be all these good deals everywhere.” There's more to the game than just interest rates. I think we all know that. But there's so much of a lack of inventory right now and affordable housing and C-class, like Slocomb pointed out. I'm a B-class investor for the most part. And with interest rates continuing to climb, with single-family homeowners taking a look where they've either refinanced or bought in recent years a 3% mortgage, and now they're looking at a 5%, a 6% or who knows, let's say a 7% mortgage, there's going to be even more of a lack of inventory... Because who's going to want to sell and get rid of that 3% mortgage to go turn around and buy a 7% mortgage?
So there's more that's going to help prop up real estate, too. It's not all just negative news. But that's kind of my high level.
I want to mention a couple quick things here about the recession, because I just made an episode on this, the 2008 and 2009. So residential multifamily defaults were around 1% at the peak of the Great Recession; just something to keep in mind for some perspective as to how ugly and bad it might get. Average rent drops were around 125 per month in residential multifamily in the B-class sector. Vacancy I think spiked up around 10% at the worst. So you know, that's only about 5% away from national average over the last five, six, seven years anyhow; it's rare to be 100% occupied. And revenues went down out about 10% on multifamily overall. So yes, it was impacted, but at the end of the day, it's necessary. It's essential. It's affordable workforce housing, like Slocomb pointed out earlier. So those are things I always keep in mind as a worst case, if we are going into recession this year, which we very likely could; we might expect to see some similarities there.
Ash Patel: Travis, those metrics did not take into account thousands of syndicators out there paying inflated prices for multifamily. And when you talk about workforce housing, I get that wages are increasing, however, rents are increasing as well. And now, couple that with inflation, high gas prices - it's putting a lot of pressure on people's discretionary income. In some cases, rents are accounting for 40% to 50% of people's take-home salary. How sustainable is that?
Travis Watts: Yeah, I think that depends a) on the property, the area you are, etc. A lot of common ways to screen for a tenant would be kind of 3x the gross income of the monthly rent, right?
So here's the deal - the deals that I'm investing in, we're usually buying today where the market rents are, let's call it, $200 under the market level. And as I just mentioned a 125 drop nationwide in the Great Recession, and then the business plan is usually to bump a couple hundred up to bring it to the market level over, let's say, five years. I think it's very realistic to say that some operators aren't going to hit those metrics. I think it's reasonable to say there's going to have to be a pause in the rent bumps; to your point, how sustainable is it?
So what I always look for is what Joe points out in his book, I like to invest in things that are already cash-flowing and cashflow positive right out of the gate. I'm not speculating that in three, four or five years we're going to be $200 a month more in rent. I'm speculating on "If we close today, and we've got a 15-year track record of this thing cash-flowing, that it's going to keep cash-flowing, even if we go into a recession, or even if we have to cut rents minorly through a dip or through a short period, that we eventually kind of come out of that on the other side." So again, back to are you speculating or are you investing? And I look at it more from an investor, long standpoint.
Ash Patel: What a great point. And I think that should be driven home to the Best Ever listeners, is make sure you're cash-flowing today. And if you're not, know that it's speculative, and you're hoping for the execution of this sponsor to go flawlessly for them to execute their plan. Great points.
You mentioned liquidity a few times, Travis... I don't want to be all doom and gloom, but I think that's one of the things that will continue to drive multifamily in the positive direction, is that there's still so much liquidity on the sidelines. There's a lot of money chasing deal flow, and there's an overall lack of deal flow compared to 2-3 years ago. So that's definitely a tailwind for multifamily syndications. And the money that's on the sidelines is actually chasing lower yields, and they're okay with it. It just seems people are desperate for deal flow, both in terms of operators and investors.
Slocomb, are you seeing that as well?
Slocomb Reed: Yes. I am seeing fewer deals from the brokers that I frequently correspond with. And my numbers are rarely ever good enough for the broker to tell me that I should submit an LOI. And it's almost always out-of-town money, who has come to Cincinnati recently, because they can't get their money invested in whatever market it is that they're coming from. This is a bit of an anecdotal answer, because that's not as much the space that I play in. But part of the reason that's not the space that I play in is because of how much competition has come into Cincinnati. That money that is looking to get deployed somewhere, willing to take a little bit more risk, move into a market that it doesn't know - a lot of it in the space where I am, the 20-40 unit properties, it's people East Coast, West Coast money who get it under contract, don't even have a local property manager yet. And it's going to be tricky, it's going to be difficult for them to execute on any sort of plan that involves increasing cash flow.
Ash Patel: Thank you. Travis, the same question for you, but on a personal level. You mentioned you're sitting on a lot more liquidity than you're comfortable with. Why are you not just chasing lower yields? What's keeping you from deploying your capital?
Travis Watts: Good question. Well, I think the psychology of when, of course, the public stock market starts falling apart, right? That kind of has a trickle-down effect into everything. So I think a lot of people, myself included, go a little bit into the kind of that wait and pause, right? No one wants to catch a falling knife. And so I don't want to keep chasing the deals just to do a deal, like I said earlier, because I'm trying to wait for one that genuinely and truly and wholeheartedly is coming from a reputable operator, that has the track record and experience, that really has conservatively underwritten. And to your point, unfortunately, the yields are lower; that's something you have to accept as an LP investor in 2022.
When I started investing in these in 2015, it wasn't unheard of to get 8%, 9%, 10% right out of the gate on your cash flow, and to have a 25% to 28% IRR. That was pretty much all the deals that I was seeing. Now, we've come way down to 4%, 5%, 6% cash flows, to 13% to 18% IRRs. But again, I don't even credit the IRR. So I'm happy if I get a double-digit return in the end. But can you sustainably make use of a 4% to 6% annualized yield in year number one, with the anticipation that ticks up over time? If that doesn't make any sense to you at all and you believe you can do something else or different, and you have the know-how and the passion for it, my advice is, go do that.
But for so many people that just don't want to take a negative 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% loss in the stock market potentially, they still might want to just clip a coupon for a couple years until things potentially pivot, and then hopefully, we're back on the road. We'll see.
Ash Patel: Great point. Great perspective. Let's continue to play devil's advocate, and if this syndication bubble starts to unravel, Slocomb, what does that look like and what opportunities are on the horizon?
Slocomb Reed: Yeah, you know, the cash that's still on the sidelines, assuming the worst in a syndication bubble, the Chicken Littles win, the people who've been sitting on the sideline, sitting on their cash, waiting for this market to end, they're going to have their moment, if that's actually what happens. Do we have the May Consumer Price Index report back yet? I'm not the person to ask.
Travis Watts: April came in at 8.3. I don't know if there's more data.
Slocomb Reed: The projection is—and of course, our listeners will know this already—the projection is that May numbers will be significantly lower. If it is the syndication apocalypse, then like you said, Ash, all that money that's been sitting on the sidelines is going to come swoop in and then take those deals.
Ash Patel: And I think they'll be bought for pennies on the dollar. Pennies might be 90 cents on the dollar.
Slocomb Reed: I think it'll be a lot of pennies, but it'll be fewer than 100 pennies. Yeah.
Ash Patel: Yeah, right. It'll be a lot of pennies. Yeah. Travis, your thoughts on if the syndication bubble unravels, what will that look like and what opportunities will be presented?
Travis Watts: That's pretty aggressive there, on your [unintelligible 00:29:03.19] I think, again, back to demand both institutionally, and main street, and syndicator-wise, all things considered, I think these gets swooped up at slight discounts, and nothing major, because there's way too much interest out there, and no one's going to accept 90 cents or 10 cents on the dollar, or whatever it is. They're really going to just have minor discounts. The same way that let's say in your neighborhood right now there's 100 homes, and there's two homes that are for sale, and all of a sudden, there's two foreclosures. They're going to get swooped up in a very similar way.
So I don't see an apocalypse happening. You’ve got to know the fundamentals of real estate, what would make something like that happen. I think the best point that both of you have brought up is anyone who's been using bridge debt that's going to come due, and now we're in a higher interest rate environment, and they weren't able to execute properly - obviously, these people are going to run into problems. I can't remember a deal I've ever done, and don't quote me on this, because I may have in the past years and years ago, where I did a deal with bridge debt. I never liked it, never trusted it. For the same reason I've never had a mortgage with an arm on it, you know, a five-year adjustable; I never trusted that stuff. So that was a huge leading problem of the Great Recession in single-family homes. So that's my take on it.
There'll be a handful - I mean, obviously, more than a literal handful of deals that are in trouble, and they'll get scooped up, and it'll be a 10% market discount, a 5% discount, it'd be something like that. That's my opinion.
Ash Patel: Thanks.
Slocomb Reed: Travis, maybe as a follow-up to this episode, this economy has been a lot tougher on employers than employees, and those employers are Ash’s tenants. So maybe we should be having a conversation about how this crazy labor market is going to impact commercial leases.
Ash Patel: That’s a great perspective. And to that point though, there's a lot of employers who are paying a higher wage, just because that's the norm now. They're giving out raises, retention bonuses, and they're not making any more money.
Slocomb Reed: Yeah.
Ash Patel: In fact, a lot are under increased pressure, due to if they're in the transportation business, gas prices being up. The medical industry, they're getting paid the same. Medicare isn't instituting a 10% wage increase for doctors and healthcare professionals, but yet, they're paying their employees more. So a lot of good points out here. And I think today we covered a lot of different angles of what could be to come. I love that the three of us have completely different perspectives on a lot of topics, so thank you all. And Travis, closing statements if you would, please.
Travis Watts: I'd say just keep an eye on all the leading indicators, to your guys's points, of affordability and inflation in the workforce housing. A lot of things will go before somebody stops making their payments because they literally can't. So look at the car repo market. I mean, we've seen what's been happening with Walmart and Target and their share prices, and this inventories building, people are buying less luxury watches, things like that... So this is the kind of stuff that I start looking at, and it trickles all the way down to one of the last things people want to stop or lose is their house, obviously, right? We all need a place to live. So I am very cautious, I am very concerned for the economy overall. That being said, I still think real estate in general is a safe haven for a lot of investors, and that puts even more demand and even more interest in real estate.
Ash Patel: Awesome. Thank you, Travis. Slocomb, wrap it up for us.
Slocomb Reed: Two things here. One is cash flow is king. If you secure long-term fixed rate debt and your income covers your expenses, you can ride out any storm that comes from the economy. That being said, not only is there a lot of capital sitting on the sidelines right now hungry for deals, but also another major shift that we've seen since 2015. The way that I've talked about it within my investor sphere here in Cincinnati is that we'll never un-bigger pockets our city. You can figure out about Cincinnati real estate, Cincinnati cashflow in your undies, on your phone, on the beach in California, and that's never going away. The amount of information that's available, the ability to contact brokers, the ability to find deals - that's never going away; when you combine that with how much cash is on the sidelines, I don't know that any recession could be as major as it was in 2008/2009/2010, because of the amount of information and capital that's out there.
Ash Patel: Great points, Slocomb. Thank you for that. Best Ever listeners, my thoughts are - when you're looking at deals, whether you're a passive investor or an active investor, stress-test your models with vacancy, increased rates, increased cost of capital, increased short-term debt cost, the cost of materials going up... Just stress-test all of your models and see what that looks like. Don't just do your pro forma on past appreciation, and look at things through two different lenses going forward.
Travis, Slocomb, thank you for a great conversation today. Best Ever listeners, thank you so much for joining us. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave us a five-star review, follow, like, and have a best ever day!
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