March 28, 2023

JF3127: How to Stress-Test Multifamily Deals ft. Gabe Bodhi



Gabe Bodhi is the CEO of Tekton Group, which acquires, renovates, and operates multifamily real estate assets for cash flow in the Colorado Front Range. In this episode, Gabe gives his expert opinion on the recent bank failures, how he stress-tests deals to decide when to say no, and why he doesn’t invest in other asset classes.

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Gabe Bodhi | Real Estate Background

  • CFA and CEO of Tekton Group
  • Portfolio:
    • 200 multifamily units
  • Based in: Denver, CO
  • Say hi to him at:
  • Best Ever Book: In an Uncertain World by Robert E. Rubin
  • Greatest Lesson: You can't make a good faith deal with a bad faith person.


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Ash Patel: Hello, Best Ever listeners. Welcome to the best real estate investing advice ever show. I'm Ash Patel and I'm with today's guest, Gabe Bodhi. Gabe is joining us from Denver, Colorado. He is the CEO of Tekton Group, and Gabe's portfolio consists of 200 multifamily units. Gabe, thank you for joining us, and how are you today?

Gabe Bodhi: I'm great, Ash. Thanks so much for having me on. I appreciate it.

Ash Patel: It's our pleasure. Gabe, before we get started, can you give the Best Ever listeners a little bit more about your background and what you're focused on now?

Gabe Bodhi: Sure. We invest in multifamily in Colorado; been doing it for the last decade. I started investing my own money in 2013, and started raising outside capital in 2016. We've bought or built 662 units worth roughly $120 million in Colorado, across 23 projects and 56 buildings. Prior to starting in real estate, I worked in institutional equities, where I was a senior research analyst and Team Leader at Janus capital, focusing on financial services companies. In fact, I was the head of the Financial Services team in 2008, so certainly this past weekend brought back some not so fond memories for me about government intervention into the banking system. Happy to talk about that a little bit.

And in terms of what we're focused on right now, we love our portfolio. We've been net sellers over the last two or three years, and we're waiting patiently for buying opportunities when deals pencil for us.

Ash Patel: That's a lot. A lot of questions that I wrote down. But the elephant in the room - just this past weekend we had the bank failures. What are your thoughts on that?

Gabe Bodhi: Certainly not an expert. It seems pretty clear that Silicon Valley was not doing a great job of risk management and didn't have enough liquidity to tackle a bank run. I think the government stepped in and backstopped the depositors while wiping out the equity on unsecured creditors, which I think ultimately is probably the right move, but we all have different opinions about government intervention.

I just think it's a scary time right now, and we all need to be very careful with what we're doing. The banking system is central to everything in the United States. Fractional Reserve Banking is sort of core to our financial system, and hopefully, it stays healthy. But it's a scary time right now. And frankly, there's two major risks in investing as a bank; it's interest rate risk and credit risk. And what we saw take down Silicon Valley was interest rate risk; it wasn't like they made a bunch of crappy loans like we had in 2008. But we have yet to see the economy weaken substantially or significant credit concerns yet. So I think that's the next shoe to drop over the next 12 months or so.

Ash Patel: And your thoughts on this being systemic, versus being isolated?

Gabe Bodhi: I'm sure you've seen the charts where if you adjusted tangible capital at Silicon Valley Bank, and all the other largest banks for unrealized losses on their securities portfolio, Silicon Valley was a complete outlier. And so, from that perspective, it's somewhat idiosyncratic. But every bank in the country is carrying embedded losses in their securities portfolio right now, just not to the extent that it wipes out the capital base. Whether or not it's systemic is ultimately going to be a function of the regulatory response. So far, I think they've done a decent job, but the Fed in terms of monetary policy is in a really tough position right now, where the banking system's clearly fragile, and yet they have yet to tame inflation. So I'd say it's early innings, but hard to say; no answer yet on whether it's idiosyncratic or systemic.

Ash Patel: Thank you for that insight. And if things veer off the rails, we'll send you an invitation to come back and talk more about this. You have been a net seller for how long?

Gabe Bodhi: The last three years, 2020 to 2023. And we got our portfolio up to about 515 units; it was about 90% class C and 10% Class B, and over the last three years I've worked that portfolio down at nice returns for our investors, and now we're about 70% Class B, 30% Class A, and have exited the class C market, which is a long story and probably time for another conversation... But we've made some good returns, and I think the interesting thing for me is we're in the market every day, underwriting deals, looking for where value is, and when every deal that we underwrite gets sold for 10% to 30% more than we thought it was worth, it's probably a decent time to be thinking about being a seller as opposed to a buyer. So we took advantage of what felt like frothy markets to us in '21 and '22, and we were able to sell some assets, and reposition the portfolio to the point that we love what we own.

Ash Patel: Allow me to push back for a second. I did this in 2015. I sold a handful of holdings, because I thought the markets overheated, it's at a peak, and surely interest rates have to start coming up now. I was very wrong. You started becoming a net seller in 2021. Were you also trying to time the market initially?

Gabe Bodhi: No, no. I think my ability, my crystal ball is no clearer than anybody else's. What we do is we underwrite deals, we're constantly in the market, and when the percentage of deals that pencil, which to me means achieves an unlevered yield that is satisfactory relative to the asking price - when that happens, we tend to think it's the time to be a big buyer. And in '21 and '22 we saw, I'd say, less than 1% of deals we looked at were penciling. And so it just felt like it was not so much a prediction of where the market was going, it was just a commentary on where the market was at that point. And ultimately, we decided to be sellers, and look smart now, but I wouldn't say it was because we knew what the heck we were doing. It was just things didn't pencil. And when things don't pencil, that means to me people are paying excess prices for properties.

Ash Patel: And you never go broke by making a profit.

Gabe Bodhi: I've heard that saying before, and I tend to agree with it.

Ash Patel: Yeah. What does your team look like?

Gabe Bodhi: It's pretty lean. Right now it's three people. It's me and my partner, and then an accountant. And at its peak, it was about 16 people when we had in-house property management. And right now it's basically my partner and I; he runs all of our renovations and development and redevelopment work, and I'm in charge of asset management, acquisitions, investor relations, capital raising.

I have been slowly looking at this change in the cycle as not just an opportunity to pick up assets, but also to pick up some talent. So sometime soon, I will be putting out a request for applicants for an asset manager COO position, and looking to grow the team. I'm 48 years old, real estate's a cyclical business; many of us forgot that over the last decade. This may be the last cycle of my investing career, we don't know... So I want to be well positioned to take advantage of buying opportunities when they present themselves.

Ash Patel: I'm the same age, same boat. We have the luxury of seeing those market cycles, and hopefully we've learned from the last few of them, and we were able to take those down. Is it hard to keep your team size dynamic, picking up people and then when there's not a lot of deal flow and work for them to do having to offload staff?

Gabe Bodhi: We've been very fortunate in that we've never fired anybody or let somebody go because of lack of revenue. We have a team - the profitability of the operating company, my GP is not of prime concern to me. It's my ability over, say, the next 15 years to generate compelling returns... And we never want to be in a position where we have to do deals.

One thing that I've certainly seen in our industry is people who want to stay busy; they have some overhead, they need to stay busy, they do deals to get fees coming in the door, and shovel money out the door... And certainly that feels like that was happening in the second half of 2021, and we're seeing some chickens come home to roost.

There was just an announcement this morning about a Houston-based private equity firm, and there's been a number of acquirers of [unintelligible 00:09:07.17] with floating rate debt, which was the only way you could get those deals to pencil. [unintelligible 00:09:11.28] handed back the keys already in multifamily. And again, we haven't even seen a recession or a decrease in rents yet. So that's probably my biggest concern, is yes, we have the interest rate side that's been working against us, but we have yet to see the underlying fundamentals destabilize.

Our stabilized portfolio right now is 97% occupied. We have two tenants that are seriously delinquent, and I consider that serious delinquency to be over $500 of money they owe us... And rents right now are 10% higher than they were a year ago. So the underlying fundamentals of our portfolio here in Denver are quite strong, and I expect - and don't hope, but I expect that those fundamentals will weaken at some point if the Fed stays the course.

Ash Patel: And are you stress-testing your deals? I'm assuming you have all fixed rate debt now.

Gabe Bodhi: That's a generous assumption of you. And it is accurate. But that is a generous assumption of you. Thank you.

Ash Patel: Knowing your background, I think it was a fair assumption.

Gabe Bodhi: We have 100% fixed rate debt, 3.98% blended average on the coupon. If you take out the two core deals that we bought in the second half of 2022, the blended average is 3.61%. We have 43 months on average until the fixed period ends, and we moved to floating, so almost four years; three and a half years. And we have 10 years on average until any of our debt matures. We have no maturities until 2030. So average LTV - V is an open question. I got into an interesting dialogue online with a friend of mine about what is value today, because it's hard to put a number when the transactions are so few and far between. We think our average LTV is around 62%, and our average debt coverage ratio based on trailing three months NOI is 165%. So we are thinking about can we handle if rents come down 10%? And our existing portfolio, we certainly can, and we're certainly underwriting no growth scenario for every deal that we're looking at right now.

Ash Patel: I think it's an important assertion, in that for so long the arrow always went up and to the right, and nobody stressed-tested deals, until they were forced to right now. So when you're underwriting deals today, what are you doing? You're taking a 10% rent reduction over current?

Gabe Bodhi: I'm not predicting that rents will go down 10%. I am generally trying to build enough of a margin of safety into my investments that at current rents the unlevered yield that I can stabilize a property to -- and we're talking about value-add deals right now... That I can stabilize a property to is well in excess of my borrowing costs.

I went out to the market last week to get some quotes, because I was looking at a deal, and my local bank lenders I usually use for acquisition loans range from 6.75% to 7.75%. So if I want a stabilized yield well in excess of those interest rates, I need to be stabilizing somewhere in the eights, and there's not a deal that I've looked at that's come close to stabilizing in the eights. The market still seems to be stabilizing in the fives, which makes no sense to me. So that's why we're holding our breath and waiting for the market to come to us.

Ash Patel: Gabe, when you say stabilizing in the eights you mean at an eight cap?

Gabe Bodhi: Yes. I don't want to get the vernacular too confusing, but we think of a stabilized yield as cap rate including all of the costs necessary to buy and stabilize that property. So you buy a deal with -- say a recent deal that we bought at $1,000 average rents; it's currently $2,000 of average rents. If we took the NOI we're generating at $2,000 of average rents, and divide it by the purchase price, that'd be a misleading metric, right? Because we'd be saying, "Geez, this is like a 20-cap" or something. Well, we spent close to $50,000 a door to double rent. So you have to include in the denominator how much you're spending on CapEx to generate those increased rents. And so when I say stabilized yield, I'm saying stabilized NOI divided by everything I had to spend to get to that stabilized NOI. In general, people think of cap rate as NOI divided by purchase price, and I'm saying the denominator includes a lot more than just purchase price.

Ash Patel: So stabilized cap rate meaning all the dollars operating CapEx it took to stabilize is included in that number.

Gabe Bodhi: You got it

Ash Patel: Got it. So today is it still five, six caps on sellers of multifamily?

Gabe Bodhi: Yes. But I think January and February in Denver volumes were down 90% year on year. So what was sold in January/February of '23 was 90% less than what was sold in January/February of '22. So it's not like there's a lot of transactions happening, because the bid ask spread between buyers and sellers is still very wide. And I expect that continue, unless there's some distress. And we've yet to see the distress, as I was alluding to earlier, because the fundamentals remain strong. So you don't have to sell. And most sellers, understandably, are still sort of hung up on 2021 pricing, and "If I could sell it for 10 million -- I got an offer for 10 million in October of 2021. Why would I sell it for 6 million today?" And they're not forced to, so they don't have to. And so that's why you're seeing volumes way down. I'm saying if I compare the asking price to what I think the stabilized NOI will be, it's coming out to about the mid fives. So I need the price to come down by 30% to make it interesting.

Ash Patel: Yeah. And I think a way to illustrate that is if you go from a three cap to a four cap, it's a 33% loss of value. So if you bought a $30 million property at a three cap, which I've interviewed plenty of people that have done that, and cap rates are now at four, that property is now worth 22.7 million. Going from a four cap to a five cap is a 25% loss in value, which is massive. And just like the banks that are holding toxic assets on their books, undisclosed, I agree with you, we're gonna see some of that come to the forefront with multifamily... Which begs me to ask the question, why not look at other asset classes - office, retail, industrial?

Gabe Bodhi: That's a great question. I think you have to have some hubris in this business, but you also have to have some humility. And to me, that humility is -- if I'm going to take somebody else's money, I'm going to invest it in something that I can have an articulable edge in. And I have no articulable edge in office, industrial or retail. I've never owned it; I've shopped, I've probably been in a warehouse or three, I certainly have an office, but I'm not an expert in that. And so for me to take somebody else's money, my LP's capital and invest it in an area that I don't believe I have a tremendous edge is a mistake.

And I go back to when we first started, I found my first deal in 2013, which was almost 10 years ago now, and for the first three years I was only investing my own money. And the reason was, I felt like I needed to build an edge, build an expertise in something, and it happened to be Denver-based sub-institutional scale multifamily, before I could reasonably go ask somebody else to give me money to invest. And I'd like to think that I have demonstrated some expertise in that area, but I'd be lying to myself and to anybody else if I said I had expertise in office, industrial, or retail, or hospitality, for that matter. I'd rather invest with smart GPs who know what they're doing than do it myself.

Similarly, we bought our first Airbnb, and my wife and I did it with our own money... Again, the reason was I didn't feel like I had any expertise in the short-term rentals. So for me to take money from somebody else to invest in an area that I didn't have an expertise in is counter to my approach to investing and the trust that I think I've built up with my LPs.

Ash Patel: Yeah. And to that point, a lot of big syndicators are starting, whether they call it a distressed fund, or a recovery fund. Are you prepping investors for what might be buying opportunities on the horizon?

Gabe Bodhi: I'd say yes. We invest both in funds and syndications. We're investing out of our second fund right now. I told you, I've been having a really hard time finding deals that pencil. We've only deployed about 25% of the funds, and so I've been having a lot of conversations with LPs about just being patient and waiting for opportunities when deals do pencil.

I think of it as like a trust bank with my LPs; you make a bunch of deposits into the trust bank when markets are crazy, and you remain disciplined and you don't go buy the three caps with floating rate debt, and then you try and take some withdrawals from that trust bank when the markets just scary, but you can legitimately pencil out an eight or a nine stabilized yield. And we're not there yet, but I am not optimistic that things get bad. But I am optimistic that if things get bad, we'll be in a position to act. And a lot of the selling we did over the last few years was not because leverage was too high, but because we didn't like the underlying quality of the asset or the area, and we wanted an asset and an area centric portfolio that we loved, so that we can go on offense when others are playing defense.

Break: [00:18:35.18]

Ash Patel: I think it's important that maybe you and I illustrate each an example of the pain felt when there's a deep recession. In 2008 I was in the corporate world. I had my HR director just randomly come up to me, she's like "Ash, look at this." A stack of papers, three inches thick. They were all resumes for an entry-level front desk receptionist position that we had. And she said "Do you know how many vice-presidents have applied for this position?" VPs at other companies that were desperate to just have employment.

So I think it's important for some of the younger Best Ever listeners to understand that when there's a deep recession, there's a lot of pain being felt by a lot of people; people are out of jobs, they are losing homes, they're losing cars... It's a huge problem. And it's been easy to be euphoric for 10-13 years, because the arrow's only gone up and to the right. Any heartbreaking stories from past cycles that you can share to illustrate what really happens?

Gabe Bodhi: This gray hair has been well earned, let's put it that way. I was in business school in the 2000 downturn, and then I was, as I said, head of the Financial Services team at Janus Capital in the 2008 downturn, which they call it the Great Financial Crisis, but it was the most pronounced downturn in the US since the Great Depression. It was awful. It was awful as a stock analyst with very little leverage and job security. I can only imagine how awful it would be if I'd been in my seat that I'm in right now, and had a bunch of over-leveraged assets. I'd be potentially working off a bankruptcy. So we are nowhere near blood in the streets world.

There are a lot of younger folks in real estate who have not lived through a tough time. And right now, my opinion is we're nowhere near blood in the streets; things are still, as I said, very solid on the underlying fundamentals of the real estate that we own in Colorado for sure.

Ash Patel: Gabe, you mentioned that you knew it was time to sell when things weren't penciling out, and deals were still being purchased much higher than you were willing to pay. What metric will tell you it's time to get back in?

Gabe Bodhi: The exact same metric. And that's the beauty of the way we approach it, is we're not trying to time the market. We're just saying in '21 1% of deals we looked at penciled. At some point in the future, whether it's '24, '25, I don't know, a large percentage of deals will pencil. And when I say pencil, I mean what I believe stabilized yield on current rents will be well in excess of the borrowing costs, and therefore I can having high cash on cash, I can meet the pref on a syndication or a fund, and the deals will cashflow.

Right now, believe it or not, Ash, pricing has gotten worse. To your point, maybe the world's gone from a four to a five cap. I don't know. Again, there's so few deals getting done, and it's hard to say. Believe it or not, I think the gap between what I'm willing to pay and what the market is offering has actually gotten wider in the last 18 months, despite me thinking 18 months ago that this market was crazy. So that's why I say the bid/ask spread is really high right now in multifamily in Colorado. And I feel for folks.

There's always two real estate economies, right? There's the underlying cash flows, and the properties, how much NOI, how much cash on cash is this property generating. There's also the transactional economy around real estate, which is brokers, mortgage brokers, title companies, people who make money because of the velocity. And as I was saying, the velocity is down 90% in Colorado. I suspect it's similar across the country. That means that transactional based real estate economy is really struggling right now. And I have a lot of friends in brokerage, a lot of friends in mortgage lending, a lot of friends in the title industry, and they are rightfully nervous, because volumes have fallen so far because the bid/ask spread is so wide right now.

Ash Patel: Yeah. Gabe, I use cash on cash as my primary metric for penciling deals. What is it that you use? Is it the yield spread? Is it the cash on cash? Is it a certain NOI?

Gabe Bodhi: So it's what we were talking about earlier with stabilized yield. So what sort of stabilized yield can I get relative to my borrowing costs and relative to market cap rates? I'm not trying to juice the return. One thing that brokers have been doing, and I had a conversation yesterday to try and make deals more interesting is offer seller financing at really low terms. I got a deal offered to me yesterday at two and a half percent seller financing IO for five years. And I'm like, "Okay, but it's a five stabilized yield." So maybe the cash on cash looks decent, but I think it could be misleading because of the financial engineering associated with it. You're going in borrowing cost is only one of three borrowing costs that are relevant, right? Your going out borrowing cost, if someone's gonna buy it from you, is certainly relevant, so that you have an exit cap rate that reflects the current industry environment. And if you want to refi, which - we like to refi, we like to take out equity, it matters what the prevailing interest rates are.

So you have this weird dynamic where artificially low interest rates can make cash on cash look more compelling, and I think it is, and it's really hard to manipulate the unlevered yield metric that we use.

Ash Patel: So hold on a second... Are you saying if you can get the numbers to work with using seller financing and your cash on cash numbers hit, if the deal doesn't pencil with traditional debt, don't do it?

Gabe Bodhi: I'm saying take a pause, think about it, understand that that seller financing may not be there forever. You don't know what interest rates are gonna look like in a year or two years or three years. That seller may want out. The fact that this guy gave me a five year offer was crazy to me. Who wants to be a lender for five years at two and a half percent?

But I only think your going in interest rate is one part of the equation. What you can refi at, what you could sell that are another part of the equation, and I would not let myself get misled by very low seller financing.

Ash Patel: Alright. So if you have to manipulate the debt to make the deal work, you may want to think twice about that.

Gabe Bodhi: That would be my opinion.

Ash Patel: Yeah, I get it.

Gabe Bodhi: I'm 48 years old, I am conservative, I am not necessarily the path for everybody to follow, but that's my perspective.

Ash Patel: I'm on board with that. Last question I really want to know from you is - are you seeing this too, where only finance and only real estate people are saying rates will be back down by the end of 2023?

Gabe Bodhi: I certainly see a lot of optimism, a lot of people talking their book... I have been positioning our portfolio for higher longer, but I'd be lying to you if I had any clue what Jerome Powell is going to do. The PPI numbers this morning seemed promising in terms of where inflation is going, but... Anybody who says they know where it's going -- and we have market mechanisms, right? There is a Fed Funds Futures market that tells us what the market thinks Fed funds will be. Guess what - on Friday, it was at 4.84 for December 2023, and Monday it was 3.84. So it changed a full hundred basis points in two days. How much faith can you have in something that's that volatile?

So first of all, it's not like my parents or my wife care what interest rates are doing, right? It's not like a conversation at the dinner table, "What do you think the Fed's gonna do over the next couple of quarters?" So yes, real estate and finance people talk about it a lot, and yes, many of them are optimistic that rates will fall... And if they do, great. But I think you've got to position yourself conservatively to survive and thrive if they don't. And then if they do, that's just that much better for you.

Ash Patel: Yeah, I 100% agree with you. Gabe, what is your best real estate investing advice ever?

Gabe Bodhi: When you buy a property, think about if you'd want to buy it if you had to hold it forever and if you had to finance it with 100% your own money. If the answer to that is yes, then a shorter hold period and bringing somebody else's capital into the equation seems reasonable. If the answer is no, I'd think twice about it.

Ash Patel: That sounds like if Warren Buffett was a real estate investor, that's exactly what he would say. Thank you for that advice.

Gabe Bodhi: I will not accept the comparison...

Ash Patel: Are you ready for the Best Ever lightning round?

Gabe Bodhi: I am.

Ash Patel: Alright, Gabe, what's the Best Ever book you've recently read?

Gabe Bodhi: I unfortunately don't get a chance to read many books, but probably the most profound book - there's two of them - is "In an uncertain world" from Bob Rubin. That was written in the early 2000s, former Treasury secretary who believes in a mindset and an analytical framework that the future is uncertain, and you have to be constantly thinking about probabilistic outcomes. And that's the way we think about the world. So that was a very profound book for me.

And then prior to that - way back, but in 1997, I read a book by Bennett Stewart called "The quest for value." And not only was it a fascinating book, it changed my life, because I went to work for Bennett after that; I moved to New York, from Boston. So those were probably the two most profound books that I have read. But unfortunately, with a six year old boy, I don't -- actually, we read some [unintelligible 00:29:11.22] books last weekend... But I don't think anybody wants to hear about those.

Ash Patel: Thomas the Train?

Gabe Bodhi: That kind of stuff, exactly.

Ash Patel: Gabe, what's the Best Ever way you like to give back?

Gabe Bodhi: I think I've been incredibly fortunate. I want for nothing, and I have a job where I get to work with very interesting people... So I feel incredibly fortunate. If you think about the three most important things that people need, it's food, shelter, and education. And I sit on the board of two nonprofits, one that provides education for underprivileged kids, and one that provides rent relief for tenants who find trouble. So addressing those base human needs around shelter and education are key to me. So my family and I both give money and serve on the board of those two organizations; a quick shout-out to Resident Relief Fund and these scholarships here in Colorado.

Ash Patel: And Gabe, how can the Best Ever listeners reach out to you?

Gabe Bodhi: The best way you can get to me is through Twitter @Gabebodhi. And my DMs are open. I've certainly been incredibly fortunate to meet some amazing people through Twitter, which for the first 10 years I had an account felt like a cesspool, and for the last two years has been an absolute godsend for me and my business.

Ash Patel: Got it. Thank you for your time today. I feel like we could have continued this conversation another hour. I had to consciously watch the clock to be respectful of your time, but thank you for a great conversation. We covered the bank failures, how you look at deals, what you're waiting on, and how you look at the economy overall. So thank you for sharing all of that with us today.

Gabe Bodhi: Thanks for your time, Ash, and for the conversation. I really appreciate it.

Ash Patel: Best Ever listeners, thank you so much for joining us. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave us a five star review, share this podcast with someone you think can benefit from it. Also, follow, subscribe and have a Best Ever day.

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