AJ Osborne is the CEO and founder of Cedar Creek Capital, which is a vertically integrated real estate private equity firm specializing in the acquisition, development, and management of self-storage facilities. In this episode, AJ discusses what caused the self-storage asset class to peak and drop in the last few years and why his firm’s buying behavior has changed completely as a result.
AJ Osborne | Real Estate Background
- CEO & Founder of Cedar Creek Capital
- Portfolio:
- $300 million AUM
- 3 million square feet
- Over 10,000 units
- Based in: Eagle, Idaho
- Say hi to him at:
- Best Ever Book: The Warren Buffett Way by Robert Hagstrom
- Greatest Lesson: The short-term is meant for taking action, and the long-term is meant for yielding results. Market cycles and results take time, so you need to put a structure around your deals that allow for that.
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TRANSCRIPT
Slocomb Reed: Best Ever listeners, welcome to the best real estate investing advice ever show. I'm Slocomb Reed, and today I'm here with AJ Osborne. AJ is based in Eagle, Idaho. He is CEO and founder of Cedar Creek Capital. They owner-operate self-storage, which includes having done ground-up development and conversions. The current portfolio consists of over 300 million in assets under management, over 3 million net rentable square feet, and over 10,000 doors. AJ, can you tell us a little bit more about your background and what you're currently focused on?
AJ Osborne: Yeah, so I'm what you would call a true nerd, because I do one thing, I have a lot of businesses around that one thing, but we go very, very deep on it. So we've been in the self-storage world since the early 2000s, so we were in it before any real estate investors knew about it or did anything with it... And we went through the Great Recession, and we touch every single component of this business, meaning that we have an architecture firm, we have a debt brokerage firm, we have our own property management firm, we have our tech company, we do feasibility studies, the tech property management system software, we also have national branding, and we're founding members of the largest co-op in self-storage of the world, and I have the number one bestselling book on self-storage, and the new version's coming out here at the end of July, first part of August, which is a very large book that goes into the history of storage, and opportunities. But I also have the largest self-storage podcast.
We started all this and we're doing it in self-storage - it was the redheaded stepchild of commercial real estate. So it's interesting over the last two decades what has happened. And I think a lot of people have really wanted more context and what's going on in the self-storage world, how do we get into it, and how did it get here? Because it is the newest of all commercial real estate asset classes.
So we are very much an industry participant, and builder, I sit on boards... We really focus in on this realm, and we've compiled lots of data, and try to share it openly, because we are very involved in trying to make the industry better. I think it provides the best opportunity for anyone in commercial real estate, especially if you're beginners, to build and succeed. But it also does have dangers that it has not seen in the past.
So we try to be very transparent. I am not a cheerleader; in fact, two and a half years ago I wrote the what I called the self-storage bubble, which was a whole entire article white paper that I had a thread on it, which backed the self-storage bubble synopsis with data, and walked through a lot of people what was happening in the self-storage industry two and a half years ago, and why it was going to come to an end, and what that would result in, which we're seeing today.
So although we're big proponents of it, I do want to make sure that it's known that I'm not a cheerleader. Why? Because there was a lot of self-storage cheerleaders that came out, and it started a lot of narratives that were totally false about the industry... And we started to hear lots of things, like self-storage is recession-proof, and all sorts of stuff that makes my blood curdle.
So we ended up having over the last few years a lot of cheerleaders in our industry, because at the time, 60% of all private equity firms in self-storage had only come to be in five years. And during that five years, where the most money had ever been raised for self-storage, and the majority of private equity firms were that new, we had an average occupancy through four of those years of 96%. And why is that important? Because prior to that, the highest annual average occupancy the United States had seen was 86%. And rates were going up at 15% to 20% a year. So there was all this new firms and all these people that had jumped into the industry right at what was almost a peak; it really was. And it skewed things, and people, and lots of people had, I think, a very skewed idea of self-storage performance and what that means.
So I try to be balanced. I tried to be very open about what we do, why we do it, why I support it, but at the same time not just be a blind cheerleader of an asset class that's rah-rah-rah, but really look at all aspects of it, which we have a unique ability to do, and to talk to people about storage and different performance cycles and how to protect yourself from downsides, instead of saying that they don't exist.
Slocomb Reed: AJ, at the peak for self-storage, at least in this market cycle, if the peak was a few years ago, what has happened since then?
AJ Osborne: That's a great question. During the fall, we had the largest drop in occupancy and rates that the industry had really seen since 2008. And the industry is nothing like it was in 2008; it's a totally different industry. We are now starting to see large companies that are restructuring debt. In some markets we've seen rents that are 30%, down, year over year. Now, in other markets it's pretty stable. But one of the leading drivers from this was the development cycle. So you have to understand, in storage, prior to 2008, you couldn't really get financing very easily. Banks didn't understand it, they didn't like it; these were short-term contracts that were risky, in their viewpoints. They thought in a recession, everybody is just going to stop paying for storage units, and they're not going to buy stuff.
So banks didn't like storage, because they didn't know how to underwrite it. Plus, there was no institutional-grade management. So it was like, if the bank ended up with that asset, who's gonna run it? Bad proposition for banks; they don't like that at all. A really bad position to be in. So because of that, prior to 2008 there had been one year that it hit a billion dollars in development, which was crazy, and that was in 2006, or right in 2007. A billion dollars had been constructed in the United States.
After the Great Recession, two things happened that changed the industry forever. First, institutional-grade management supported by a REIT came out via Extra Space. And the industry now had models they could test off of a long-term debt cycle, or a credit crisis that happened in 2008, so now banks could manage funds, and capital allocators could manage using an institution; they could also benchmark and they could review models that had been tested in a credit crisis, both of which didn't happen prior. This opened up the floodgates for investors to come into self-storage. Now, self-storage is the lowest defaulting asset class in 26 years, it is also the highest-performing commercial real estate asset and lowest defaulting commercial real estate asset class during that time. But that is a skewed number. And the reason why it's skewed? Maybe, you know; I don't know, so I guess I'm asking... What was the average LTV, if you even know, in 2008 for multifamily? Do you know what the average LTV was? I don't.
Slocomb Reed: That's a great question. I wasn't in the game yet in '08, but I'm sure it was lower than what proceded it, when we came out of the recession.
AJ Osborne: Yeah. It's like, the build-up - it was probably high, right? It was probably like 90%, 85%... Because that's where most asset classes were. Self-storage was under 40%. And the reason being, because banks didn't wanna do it. In fact, more than the majority of the assets were debt-free, because you couldn't get very good financial products [unintelligible 00:09:16.26]
So when you have a credit crisis, and we went into the Great Recession, self-storage did better than other real estate asset classes and had a really low default rate. Well, they also had virtually no debt. So...
Slocomb Reed: The low default rate was at least in part a result of supply and demand factors, but also has to do with how little debt and how low debt there was on those properties.
AJ Osborne: That's correct. So because of that, I bought a lot of bankrupt properties or properties that were getting restructured, that were mainly all from developers at the time, that we bought and we were turning around. But when you came out from that, all these golden gooses of real estate had just been slaughtered through 2008, and self-storage emerged victorious.
So what preceded that, after 2016, was every single year after that was $5 billion in development. Now, remember, just a few years prior, the highest ever recorded was a billion. Every single year after 2015 was 5 billion plus in development. For years. That's a magnitude that - once again, you didn't get 5 billion in 5 years prior to that. So to go seven years of 5 billion annually - it blew away everything we had perceived as what would happen. This started to result in lower occupancies and rents in 2018, but the industry had a horrible savior, which was COVID. And I don't know how much of the trillions of dollars the government printed went into storage, but I can tell you, it was a lot.
So COVID was the biggest boom for self-storage in the world. It saved an industry that was at the end of a debt cycle, frankly, that was starting to just feel the pains of that. And the reason being is interest rates dropped down to two and a half percent made the housing market boom, which boomed storage. 45 plus percent of our customers come from moving... As well as the inability for people to do traditional activities drove them to do things like remodel homes... Their normal supply chains for businesses had been disrupted, they started using storage for that... And people started doing outdoor activities. Occupancies skyrocketed, and rates skyrocketed along with it. Now, this is the bubble. And when we were showing people, you can actually see in the charts and everything the actual peak of it. It's going, it just peaks out, and then last fall it dropped. Occupancies dropped, rates dropped.
Slocomb Reed: The reason it's so drastic is a change in consumer behavior?
AJ Osborne: The reason is, like I like to tell people - and this is what we talked about in the Self-storage bubble that was so important for people to realize, that high inflation meant high interest rates... Which people said "Yeah, but when you get into those periods, people need storage, because they need to downsize." And I say, "Yeah, but you're under the assumption that people are going to downsize and walk away their house, when over 95% of all homeowners had 30-year mortgages at under 4% interest rates, and their incomes kept rising."
So the worst thing for storage is what occurred, and that was stagnation, meaning the houses stopped trading. People didn't lose them, people didn't move. The movement of the housing market froze completely. And then you glossed all the free money, inflation was driving up people's costs, so they stopped buying toys, they stopped doing all those things that they'd done prior, and the great moving machine of America stalled out. And that directly corresponds obviously with demand for self-storage. So that then in turn took place, which - that was felt differently across the United States. Areas that were more oversupplied had new inventory been built, and had had astronomical run-ups in rates. They felt that much more severe, obviously, than other areas did. But on average, nationally, I think it was the only second to 2008. Outside of that, the largest drop in occupancy and rates that storage has seen. A big change.
Slocomb Reed: So starting with the Great Recession, correct my summary where I'm wrong - you have supply lagging behind demand; demand catching up in huge ways starting in 2015-2016. The pendulum swung too heavily on the supply side; you started to feel that in 2018. However, consumer behavior changed so drastically with COVID that the glut of new supply was absorbed by temporary changes in the ways that people were using self-storage, resulting from the pandemic. And now that we get to say that the pandemic is over, consumer behavior is returning to normal and we're realizing how oversupplied we are.
AJ Osborne: 100%. And like I try to make sure people understand, we're having a retreat to a normal cycle. So self-storage is coming off this huge bubble, and it's just returning to a normal... But that normal is substantially lower than where we were at in the bubble. It's not that it's bad. The industry isn't collapsing. But what had happened in one of the biggest changes for self-storage was that in five years, private equity and newcomers into the storage market was crazy. In fact, you can actually see the shift in capital away from the REITs in the top 100 operators to private equity, and to new money. They started buying up things at massive high valuations, under an idea "I think that they couldn't fail", and that rates would always go up.
Now, large operators in the top 100, which I'm in, and the REITs, actually became the lowest purchasers over this period and timeframe of assets. It switched. And this also marks an end of a cycle, where the actual people doing and buying it, they stop buying as much, and it moves over. Their buying habits also changed. But what it did then is all this new money rushing into the industry to buy it, that had no experience and had priced things as if they would never come down, or that cap rates would never change, which I actually had someone told me that cap rates would not rise in third and fourth tier markets, because apparently that doesn't happen anymore, which that's ludicrous, but that was what they were doing and saying. And this is big money, this isn't small money. And that part right there was the danger. It's not that the self-storage [unintelligible 00:15:58.03] it's that people bought at astronomical valuations, at two and a half percent interest rates, and the deal doesn't work if the cap rate goes from four or three to five and interest rates rise, which that all exactly happened. Cap rates are rising and self-storage, and people that are refinancing or having to sell, they never projected this in their models, that we would be in a time like that... Which is silly and should have never happened - they should never been doing it - and easily avoidable.
And this is where it comes down to I think why a lot of assets actually failed. It's not because the assets fell, it's because of the structure placed on the asset fails. And with storage, I think it got to a point where it was priced to perfection. And that had never happened in storage before. We'd never experienced anything like that. So a lot of --
Slocomb Reed: In that run-up, AJ, were you in Cedar Creek a net buyer or a net seller of self-storage?
AJ Osborne: Oh, I don't sell, and I'm always a net buyer, because I don't buy predicated on markets, meaning that I don't expect the market to make me. So our overall strategy is I'm finding really underperforming assets relative to its current market, and that spread is my entire return, and I look for isolated assets that don't have very much supply. We buy them and we hold them for the long term, and we lock in our overall major liabilities like interest rates, and everything else. So two and a half years ago we financed our entire portfolio out to 2029.
Now, we bought, but our buying behavior changed completely. So we moved out of all the big, growing markets that had really benefited, where everybody was running to from the migrations, and we actually changed and went to markets that had not had that, and also had not received new supply, like those markets had. So I call that a rate runway. I moved the markets where the rate runway was really long, because the price per square foot had to lift in order to hit the strike price of new supply coming on board. That gives me a long runway, and I can buy operators that were really poor, turn the facility around, have large cash flowing margins... So whether the market goes up or down, meaning cap rates go from five to seven or eight, I don't care. That doesn't bother me at all. And I lock in those interest rates so I'm not worried about those changes.
So I'm a net buyer, always. I'm buying this year, I'll be buying next year. Because we look at storage like a business. And we expect our assets to be great today, incredible, ongoing, but it has to be on measurable inputs, meaning I don't expect the market to make me. So it's not like "Oh, we buy, and I'm sure the market will make real estate be worth more." That's not how we operate. It's a very value-add, measurable system that we employ. That's why we survived 2008 and didn't lose any properties and didn't have any of those problems that a lot of other people did, because of how we buy and run our businesses. We weren't at risk. So that led us to be a larger net buyer after 2009, which allowed us to continue buying, and that's what we're doing right now. Our latest fund is an opportunistic fund, which we're getting deals that are seller-financed, that are non-recourse, we're putting 25% down, that are 35% under market rates, that traditionally going out to the market you can't do, because banks aren't going to underwrite it, so they're left with little options. So we like to take opportunities in times like this to get very creative, be a net buyer, but not just across the board; be have a net buyer of very specific assets that have upside that is exaggerated during these times.
Break: [00:19:41.26]
Slocomb Reed: For the sake of pivoting the conversation, AJ, allow me to overgeneralize. You buy properties experiencing distress, whether that be physical, financial distress, distress regarding the circumstances of the owner, which are very likely right now debt distress... And because of your operating savvy, your scale, your experience, you're able to make those properties perform. Outside of the distress factors, outside of looking for the lower occupancy rates, the below market rents, and outside of looking for sellers experiencing an acute distress that would be alleviated by selling the asset, outside of all the distress factors, what is it or where is it that you're targeting you're acquisitions right now, call it the end of Q2 2023?
AJ Osborne: That's a great question. Right now, our targets for our acquisition - we are very sensitive to supply. So first of all, we do not believe the economy is turning around, and we're catching it at the bottom. So I don't time markets, I want to make sure that's very, very clear. Hence the reason why I'm a buyer all the time. I don't time markets, but my money usually does, meaning that it's just predicated on yield... So I don't think that markets are going to be better moving into next year, so we're going to go into a market that's going to just get this massive uptick. So that's not how our buying decisions work. We are very interested in long-term growth rates, that usually we are priced out of. So I'm very interested in markets that over the last three years I couldn't go to, because there was no yield, and there was a lot of risk at that time, or over the last few years... Where now everybody's running away from, we can look and get good assets, that are long-term benefiting.
So we are mostly concentrated in the Midwest, South-West, and the North-West, largely. We are very interested in the South-East, and we continue to be interested in the regions that we are in. We want to see, generally speaking, very long-term trends. And we're looking at micro supply and demand, and when we have properties that meet those requirements in an operator, that doesn't need to be in distress, but just doesn't operate at our level, we snatch them up, and we buy them. Now, obviously that can come in all shapes and sizes. But generally speaking, we're looking at 60,000+ net rentable square feet, we want gross potential revenue to be $400,000 plus, and we are looking within regions that we already are in, or we're looking in regions that we may be entering now, like the Phoenix metro area, which we had not been able to enter in over the last few years, just because the yield didn't work for us, as well as other markets like that. We think that this is a great opening, and we're having realistic conversations with owners, as opposed to just pie in the sky stuff. It doesn't mean they're distressed, but it just means that we have access to better opportunities than we had, as far as it's just not crazy-priced.
Slocomb Reed: That's very helpful. I have one more question, AJ, before we transition this episode. I've been a host of this podcast for about a year and a half now, and I've interviewed some self-storage investors very early on. I heard more so at the end of '21 and early '22 - those are the interviews that are giving me the compulsion to ask this question, though I've heard a similar sentiment repeated since then. I don't know that I've heard you bring this up specifically, although we've talked about supply and demand, and we've talked about $5 billion a year in new development... When I have asked the question in the past where to look to buy, or where to look to break into the market with a smaller asset, for a listener or me, considering our first self-storage property, almost everyone I've asked has cautioned, or at least said "Put it in your due diligence to figure out how much more supply can be added to the area soon." Of course, look at what's being developed currently, but also look at the barriers to entry for new self-storage in that area prior to considering purchasing in the area. Is that a major factor for you now in your purchasing decisions?
AJ Osborne: Well, let me put it like this... I have a saying goes, "You can be the smartest self-storage operator, the most powerful in the world, and buy in a market that will be over supplied, and you will fail. You can be the dumbest self-storage operator and investor and buy in a market that is under-supplied, and be outrageously successful."
So it is the first line that we care about. Everything else is mute. If we think there will be new added supply, due to either future plans, zoning requirements, all of those things in an area, we generally don't want to risk it. Now, if we know there's supply, and there may even be [unintelligible 00:27:01.08] But we're very, very sensitive to that. Because the number one thing that kills self-storage is self-storage. So it's a very easy asset class to overbuild in. Low barriers of entry, low cost... And compared to other commercial real estate assets, a lot of people can just go jump into it, and it's a "Build it and they will come" mentality. So that is a very big concern, and something we analyze in depth on.
Slocomb Reed: In your due diligence, how is it that you analyze for future supply potential?
AJ Osborne: So future supply potential for self-storage is a combination of two things. So we have what I would call the near-term supply. So we can actually go, we work with the city and we say "What applications have been sent in, or approved for self-storage to be built?" And we will then look through that, we'll see... Then we ask "Where are the areas within the city that the city wants, allows, approves self-storage to be built?" Now, who owns those parcels of land? What are the future plans with them?
So when we're working with the cities, I want to see, first and foremost, what's already permitted and approved? The next is who own lands, and who is submitting, and who has plans to do it? And then third is what areas are zoned, and what areas does the city want storage to go into, and what areas do they not, where they say "This isn't zoned, we will not rezone, or we will not issue permits in this area for storage." So that gives me more of a short-term future, mid-term future, and then more of a long-term future in planning for storage.
Now, at the end of the day, I'm not looking at net zero in a city ever to be built. That doesn't make sense. Where that really comes into play is the overall current demand. So if you're in a weak demand environment that you're buying into, it just takes one even small facility to screw the market up. And it takes -- a big facility in a small market can just obliterate it for years. So it's a measure of how much it can absorb, and where those potential new assets are going, and what that absorption rate would look like. Generally speaking though, if I'm buying and they have a big facility coming in in a five-mile radius, I'm going to either not do it, or be very weary of doing it. Now if it already exists, meaning the new supply is there and they're in fill-up mode, I can analyze that. I can figure that out. So I'm okay with that.
Slocomb Reed: Hold on, you're okay with new supply that's in fill-up mode? You're okay with going into that market, or you're okay with analyzing it?
AJ Osborne: I'm okay going into it, meaning that I'm going to buy a storage facility, and there's another storage facility that's already opened up, but they're in fill-up mode. I can look at that facility and I can say, "Alright, I know exactly the units, the exact square footage, and I can see the asset that I'm buying, the new one." I can see, "Has this one already been affected? Will it be affected?" And then I can also look at the current fill-up. What rates are they pricing at? How are they marketing? Are they filling up strong, or not? We can start to analyze and see the effect of it... So it's there, it's known.
What I don't want is that either they're in the middle of building, so it's not on the market, so I have no idea how the market's reacting to it, I don't know what exactly the units are... Or it's going to be, meaning it's been permitted and approved, and I don't know; I can't see it, I don't know how it'll affect the asset... Then it's just a toss up. But if I'm buying a facility and a new asset is in fill-up mode, and that facility hasn't been affected, and you're in good fill-up mode on the other one, it's really strong and their rates are good - well, then it's like, "Okay, the market's absorbed it. It's not having the negative effect, and they're able to absorb it", obviously, by the fill-up rates and pricing of the units.
Slocomb Reed: That makes a lot of sense. AJ, are you ready for the Best Ever Lightning Round?
AJ Osborne: Oh, I'm ready.
Slocomb Reed: What is the Best Ever book you've recently read?
AJ Osborne: Best Ever, recently... Recently. Holy cow, that's a tough question, that I should have thought more of. I have a bunch I've tried to avid-read, and there's a lot that I go back to, so I'm going to go back to this one, which is just The Warren Buffett Way. And I did read it a month ago. I read it every year. And the new abridged version of the Warren Buffett Way. I tried to read it once a year. So it's one of my favorite books, and I've just recently read it, and it's applicable, always, and a good reminder.
Slocomb Reed: What is your Best Ever way to give back?
AJ Osborne: I give back to my church, and a few charities, like [unintelligible 00:31:49.12] Hope, which gives wheelchairs to people in third, fourth world countries that they literally don't have a way to be mobile; they're stuck in a bed in a hut, or their family can't take care of them, and they have no mobility. So they supply those countries with wheelchairs; they actually send them down to them, and work hand in hand with the local municipalities to give out wheelchairs to people that don't have the ability to walk.
Slocomb Reed: That's awesome. AJ, on the properties that you have acquired, what is the biggest mistake you've made, and the Best Ever lesson that resulted from it?
AJ Osborne: How long have we got? Have we got a few hours here? Because I've got a long list that I can go through if we want to talk about my mistakes. Alright, I've got good one for you. So our portfolio that we had built up just until four years ago, we did not syndicate; we had no investors on it. And it was over 1.5 million net rentable square feet, over 150 million worth of assets that were just me and my two partners, which was my brother in law and father, and we didn't have investors. And I decided to allow people to invest and to start syndications. Very opposite route than most people take, I know, and that had its unique learning curves. But we'd never lost a property, we were very confident, and I thought "Not worried about this." We found a great under-performing value-add asset, which we purchased and we syndicated, our first deal ever. Well, on this deal, we had a property inspection, and the property had roof leaks that didn't get caught in the inspection, and they'd lied about leases... So we couldn't give rents, we had no leases, and leaky roofs, and I've never had that happen on any property, and I had both of those things happen on one property, and it was the first one that I syndicated, of course. So that was not fun, and egg in the face embarrassing, but...
Slocomb Reed: What is the lesson here?
AJ Osborne: The lesson was twofold. Your due diligence process needs to be way more hands-on. A property inspector may pass it, but that didn't mean that the roofs didn't have problems. So we actually get a roofer to inspect roofs, outside of just a normal property inspector.
Slocomb Reed: And what is your Best Ever advice?
AJ Osborne: Long-term, not short-term... Meaning the short-term is meant for action, it is meant for execution, but the long-term is what should be meant for yielding results. I do not try to have my expectations on assets be forced in the short-term, and try to have it play out. Market cycles and investments take time, and the good ones take time. So you need to have a good structure on the asset, that allows you to go through different market cycles and different troubles for the asset to get to where you want it to be. So execute in the short-term, but realize results in the long-term, and put a structure on it that allows you to do that. Not floating rates, not "Need to sell it", not "Need to refinance within a short period of time." That can get you into trouble.
Slocomb Reed: Last question, where can people get in touch with you?
AJ Osborne: You can go to selfstorageincome.com. That has all our resources on storage, with the podcast, my book... You can go to @AJOsborne on Instagram, or just "AJ Osbourne storage", you can search that and you're gonna find more than you ever want to know anyways. But yeah, AJ Osborne on Instagram, or go to our sites.
Slocomb Reed: Those links are in the show notes. AJ, thank you. Best Ever listeners, thank you as well for tuning in. If you've gained value from this episode, please do subscribe to our show. Leave us a five star review and share this episode with a friend we can add value to through our episode today. Thank you, and have a Best Ever day.
AJ Osborne: Thanks. I appreciate it.
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