March 25, 2022

JF2761: The Key to Underwriting Retail Deals ft. Philip Block

What are the advantages of investing in retail over multifamily? Philip Block, Managing Partner for LBX Investments, made the shift from investing in apartments to shopping centers almost four years ago, and currently has $284.5M in AUM. In this episode, Philip details his underwriting process that has helped him close multiple deals.

Phil Block | Real Estate Background

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Slocomb Reed: Best Ever listeners, welcome to The Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever Show. I'm Slocomb Reed and I'm here with Phil Block. Phil is joining us from Los Angeles. He has a multifamily background, but his company LBX Investments is primarily syndicating shopping centers right now, and they are fully vertically integrated with over 284 million in assets under management. Phil, can you start us off with a little more about your background and tell us more about what you're currently focused on?

Phil Block: Sure. Thanks for having me, it's great to be here. I founded the company with Rob Levy, my partner; he and I have worked together for a really long time. We had a large company in New York called Centerline Capital, which is a public company; he was a CFO and then CEO and I ran corporate finance, after doing some investment banking in New York prior to that. We're value guys, so when we sold the company in various kinds of iterations, we were looking for something for our own account and looking for value. Multifamily was expensive, felt expensive to us six years ago, so we were wrong, because it continues to appreciate... But really saw an opportunity in the retail space. We both have retail backgrounds in prior lives, so we started buying shopping centers, largely in the Southeast, and now all around the country.

Slocomb Reed: Yeah. The seven-year real estate cycle has been ending for like the last five years.

Phil Block: Exactly.

Slocomb Reed: Everybody thought apartments were overpriced back in 2015, 2016 and here we are. So you're value guys; that's one of those terms, I use it. Many people, they do the value play or they do value-add; what does that mean for you guys specifically?

Phil Block: In general, what it means is we are looking for yield that we feel is mispriced, where the risk is mispriced. That typically means buying when other people are selling, particularly institutions, and selling maybe when other people are buying. It's still true today, but we started this, as I said, we had a prior partnership six years ago and we started LBX four years aago... And when you bid on a multifamily deal, you know how many guys are you competing against. It was 40 guys; it's hard to say -- I really found value when I beat 40 guys in the deal. You may end up making money and doing well but that is a pretty competitive landscape. We're bidding against four or five folks typically and we're buying larger institutional assets, and trying to hit an in-place yield with some upside where we think the market is not understanding what the real risks are there. Anyway, that's our focus.

Slocomb Reed: So you're looking for mispriced yield or mispriced deals, which means you have to get out of multifamily, because multifamily is so picked over. Even if something is mispriced, as you said, there are 39 other people who are going to bid on it. So that has moved you into shopping centers; and Phil, feel free to correct me where I'm wrong. What you've found in shopping centers is an asset class where you could become an expert, if you weren't already one, and you're finding more deals where there's potential for value that other people are missing. You have more of an analytical advantage, we could say, in shopping centers over all of the competition that you're facing to buy multifamily, is that fair?

Phil Block: I think that's right. I think you have to think about how we think about things. There's macro and there's micro. From a macro standpoint, especially four years ago, but still true today, there's a narrative in the media that retail is dying, everything's e-commerce, Amazon's going to take everybody's lunch. What we said is that doesn't make a lot of sense for a lot of the retail today. Now, are class C malls in the middle of America, where the population is declining, a good investment? Probably not. We're not at all interested in that; we're not going into enclosed malls with a Sears, a JC Penney, and a Dillard’s, or whoever your anchors might be, where you have 500,000 square feet of vacancy.

What we thought is grocer-anchored centers, Target anchored centers, and Walmart anchored centers in the best locations, in the best markets, from a macro standpoint; that felt and feels great and sustainable. Especially, we were focused on just fundamentally great real estate, so growth markets in the Southeast, where you saw population and demo growth, that felt fantastic. And just in terms of we're buying on main and main. If you think about retail, you're normally main and main; if you're buying office, you might be in some office park way out off the road. If that goes away, how are you replacing that? Same with industrial.

Retail, you're right out on the road. You have 50,000 cars going by every day, especially when you buy the best stuff. So that's macro, and we felt this way makes a lot of sense, and we both were and are experts in this sector. And it's hard, there aren't that many people that understand it. Everybody understands apartments, it's why there's so much capital that floods it; it's not that hard to understand or to underwrite basically what your rental growth is going to be, and what your vacancy, and you can underwrite multifamily. With retail, we're looking at the credit of the tenants, we're looking at the long-term trends in that submarket, and we're thinking about how much does it cost to replace those tenants, because we have large TI dollars and leasing commissions...

We've become, we think, probably better than anybody in the market at underwriting that risk, which is why we've beaten our underwriting on every deal we've ever done. So macro, thinking about this... And then micro, what's the best specific asset? What's the grocer that's doing the best in that sub-market? What are the rents on a tenant-by-tenant? How much is it going to cost me to replace -- maybe there's a 20,000 square foot box tenant; pick one, Bed Bath & Beyond... But is their rent well below market? Can I improve that over time? Are they paying too much? Really, understanding the nuances.

Slocomb Reed: Speaking of one of those nuances, Phil, do you guys do single-tenant properties? Do you have a preference there for single-tenant or multi-tenant? Does it matter to you?

Phil Block: Yeah. We don't do single-tenant; we often sell single-tenant. One of the strategies that we employ is we will buy an entire center, and it's like buying wholesale and selling retail. So you buy a whole center, maybe it has a Publix grocery store, a nail salon, a pizza shop, etc, and then you have Chick-fil-A or McDonald's out on the road. So if we can buy the whole center at a seven cap or an eight cap, and then sell off those outparcels at, as you know, three cap, four cap, five cap, we can really reduce our basis and enhance our yield.

Slocomb Reed: Awesome. A couple of other questions for you... I have an apartments background, and I'm conversational in shopping center investing through my associations and through my work at this podcast. I want to ask you a couple of quick questions about the way that you analyze properties, and then I want to dive into the numbers and hopefully get into the specifics of one of your deals. First, Phil, I want to ask - this is a term that we hear often... What counts to you as main and main?

Phil Block: Sure. They're typically arteries running out from whatever major city you're talking about. We are not buying urban core retail or real estate, but kind of first and second ring where you see the suburban population growth. We're talking about major intersections, and there are normally just a few in those submarkets. We're typically thinking 30k, 40k, 50k car per day type vehicle counts on both roads.

Slocomb Reed: I'm imagining Phil, you get off of the interstate at an exit, you end up on a road that also has a state route number, and then you hit a red light where another road also has a state route number. That probably sounds like the kind of main and main you're looking for, right?

Phil Block: That's right. Yeah, I'm sure all your listeners are familiar with where the Targets are, the Walmarts, etc. Home Depot.

Slocomb Reed: Yeah, absolutely. I'm using the apartment terminology here. Tell us more about how you underwrite for the cost of vacancy?

Phil Block: Sure. We're talking about the cost to replace the tenants. Typically, what we found is that the best retail is pretty well occupied. There are very few -- I wish I could tell you and your listeners that were buying 80% or 70% occupied shopping centers that you can come in and immediately lease that space up; it's mostly going the other direction. When there's a vacancy -- not 100%; we have maybe one or two examples of deals we bought where there was an obvious vacancy. Two that I can think of off the top of my head. But in general, that's the type of very clear value-add that you do end up with a lot of competition. What's more typical is if you drive just in your neighborhood, my guess is the better shopping centers you go to are full. Maybe there's a small shop space or one of the anchors left, but it was immediately replaced, that kind of stuff.

But the key to underwriting is what's your current cost, what are they paying, what's your current rent, and use an anchor space; 20,000 square foot, the guy like a TJ Max, Marshalls - they're probably paying somewhere around $10 a foot a year; maybe it's 12, maybe it's eight, it's just depending on the market. And how much the TI, the tenant improvement dollars was. If they're going to go out, they're leaving or maybe you already have that vacancy, you're going to have to spend tenant improvement dollars to get somebody else in, you might have to white-box the space, it's called, to bring it to very plain, vanilla space.

Slocomb Reed: Do you have an average cost per foot metric for your white boxing?

Phil Block: You can't exactly... The white box we do, the TI dollars can vary considerably. Some tenants are on an as-is basis, so you underwrite a range of outcomes, thinking about who do you want and what does that look like. The more dollars you have to spend -- obviously, you can buy up rents, but that can cost you in the long term.

So the typical TI, if it's expensive -- like, splitting a box could cost you 70 bucks a foot, $80 a foot, something like that. What does the HVAC look like, because that's always one of your major costs; what does the roof look like, do you have to redo the roof for your new tenant... That's why the variables within retail are pretty dramatic. From, "Hey, we're going to do an as-is deal", to "You need to give me $100 a foot for a medical use, and white-box it, and get new HVAC." Doing a new grocery store probably costs you $100 a foot, something like that, to build out.

Slocomb Reed: Yeah, dramatic variables; to your point though, they create the opportunity to find value. How much it costs to turn a two-bedroom apartment with one bathroom is fairly uniform in a market, much more uniform than the kind of stuff that you're talking about. Especially if you're subdividing a space, or you have to put new air handlers in because it used to be one-tenant and now you're going to have two in that same space. That makes a lot of sense. Do you have a rule of thumb for anticipating how long a space will remain empty after a tenant moves out?

Phil Block: Yeah, you probably started 12 months for a shop-type vacancy, just like that 1,000, 2,000 square foot from an underwriting convention; and then in an extremely hot market, you may shrink that. Just the time it takes to go out and lease it, sign a new lease, get somebody in, get the space renovated for them, and have maybe some free rent periods before they start somewhere - call it a year, and we typically beat that.

Slocomb Reed: Gotcha. So you estimate conservatively, conservatively meaning a longer time. You're estimating a 12-month vacancy when someone moves out of a 2,000 square foot space.

Phil Block: The honest answer is we go space by space for every new deal, and it varies. But if you're asking for a very general rule, that's pretty safe. The larger spaces that anchor 5,000 to 50,000 square foot spaces are certainly more uniquely done, tenant by tenant, but always longer than a year. Those leases take much longer and the timeline to get somebody in takes much longer.

Slocomb Reed: Phil, just a couple more general questions and then I want to different direction. Let's say, you're going to have an anchor tenant vacate and let's say you're going to have a 1,000-2,000 square foot tenant vacate; in those two scenarios, how often are you courting new tenants for the space before the space is actually vacated? Like, come see this actual operating restaurant in the space where you're considering putting your own restaurant, as opposed to getting the tenant out, white box it, and show it as a fresh new clean space to a prospective tenant? Where's the balance there? Are you trying to get people in beforehand, or are you waiting?

Phil Block: Always before. Especially in commercial leases, we have sometimes a year notice, sometimes nine months. It's never like tomorrow they're out; that's just not how it works, or even 30 days. We have a long lead time, and our head of leasing is just fantastic. He's out of Charlotte, and he's been doing this for 30 years, and he's as good as it gets in the industry. And then we work with the best local leasing teams depending on where our shopping centers are, and he's managing them, and we're having calls weekly between them and they're showing that space and pushing it long in advance of a vacancy.

Slocomb Reed: Gotcha. Let's turn the conversation for our Best Ever listeners. Phil, have you gone full cycle on a shopping center?

Phil Block: We have refinanced, we haven't sold anything on purpose. If you think about our timeline, we started LBX four years ago almost exactly, and started buying shortly after that. In our first shopping center, we bought all the equities out; we have another two deals now out of our 11, three out of the 11, I think, that all the equity is out or with a refi happening now, it'll be out.

Slocomb Reed: All the equity is out meaning that with the cash-out refinance you bought out your limited partners.

Phil Block: They stay in the deal, but meaning that as unlimited partners, as a limited investor, you have all of your money back, and you're still getting a pretty significant distribution quarterly.

Break: [00:18:22] - [00:20:18]

Slocomb Reed: If you could, for us, Phil, pick one of those deals... I want to go through it from start to finish in the next few minutes here. Treat me like one of your LPs and tell me a couple of things. Keeping in mind that I could put my money in apartments any day of the week, that there are plenty of opportunities at 8% pref, 15% IRR, underwritten on the five-year hold, get my money back in three to seven years - that's out there. And I'm considering you instead of that. One of these deals is obviously already worked because, in reality, you've gotten the LPs all their money back and they're still in the deal, and still receiving returns. Start with how you pitch this to me as your limited partner, and then move me through the steps of executing your business plan until you got to that cash-out refi. What did that look like?

Phil Block: Sure. I'll use the first deal we bought. A deal called Alafaya Commons, which you can see on our website. It's in Orlando, it's right by UCF, University of Central Florida, which is I think either the largest or second-largest school in the country now by total student population. And as we talked about before - main and main; so there's an artery running from downtown Orlando east which is where UCF is, and once you run East then there's another one main road and it's Alafaya Trail and Colonial Drive. Colonial Drive runs East out of downtown, then Alafaya Trail runs North-South, and it's on the corner of this main intersection. It couldn't be more dense in growing faster, it's just absolutely tremendous real estate. As a shopping center, we bought at a nine cap going in. For today, it's pretty small for us, but call it $20 million, just under $20 million.

Slocomb Reed: Day one, nine cap.

Phil Block: Day one, nine cap.

Slocomb Reed: Is that fully occupied?

Phil Block: I don't have it in front of me, call it 95% occupied; right around 95.

Slocomb Reed: 95% occupied. Okay, that's the first number that jumps out on an apartment investor Phil. Ain't nobody buying nothing at a nine cap right now.

Phil Block: Well, you're not buying retail at a nine cap anymore, but this--

Slocomb Reed: Sure. Well, yeah. To your point. When was this?

Phil Block: This was three and a half years ago.

Slocomb Reed: Pre-COVID. Gotcha. What does that cap rate look like?

Phil Block: For what's left in the center, it's probably a seven; but call it right around a seven cap.

Slocomb Reed: So 95%-ish percent occupancy, you're opening at a seven cap, you bought it at a nine three years ago; today it would be a seven cap. How much of a value play did you have when you bought this three years ago at a nine cap?

Phil Block: Significant. One of the things, as we talked about, you were asking me about single-tenant, do we ever buy single-tenant, and I said we sell it. So here, there was a Taco Bell, a thing called Amscot, which is like a check-cashing place, but right out on the corner, paying a huge rent, and they had a 10% rent bump coming with a 10-year option that they had to exercise within six months of our buying it or a yar of our buying it, and we knew they were going to do that, or we felt strongly that they would. And there was a local Chinese restaurant out on this main road that made no sense to us really, again; kind of a single parcel. And Academy Sports was one of our anchors; it was on the end and could easily have been parcel. If you're not familiar with Academy sports, it's like Dick's Sporting Goods.

So what we felt was we were buying this wholesale -- and frankly, a number of the rents in place were significantly below market, and the shock... While it's 95% occupied, a large chunk of that is because of Academy Sports; they were 50,000 something square feet. So we did have a decent amount of shop space, and the truth is, the kind of the secret sauce, that's where you make your rent, that's where you make your money, because shop space goes for three times the cost of your box space. And a lot of the time, the institutions are great; the institutions that we buy from. We were buying from Regency centers, which were the large public REIT. They're great at leasing your big national anchors, they're not very good at your local shop space, because they do what you did, which is say, "95% occupied, that's great. It checks thei report and nobody's really paying attention."

If I leased that last 6000 square feet at $35-$40 a foot, that's four times what you're leasing your anchor space at, and it's adding significant value; you're tapping that. So what we did is we said we can parcel all of these individual single-tenants, sell them, and reduce our basis. So as I said, we bought it a nine cap, we sold Amscot, first we let it bump by 10%, and then we sold it on the new income for a 6.5 cap. We sold the Taco Bell for, at the time, I believe a five cap, either a 4.5 or a five cap, it was a low market rent. We kicked out the Chinese restaurant because he was struggling and we brought in Jollibee. Are you familiar with Jollibee?

Slocomb Reed: I'm not.

Phil Block: It's like the McDonald's of the Philippines, they're absolutely massive. We just did that deal and sold it at a 4.5 cap. Then we went to Academy, we created a tax parcel for the giant Academy box, and we sold that at an eight cap, which was a good deal for the buyer, to be honest... But because of our basis, we now have all of our money out just from selling all those, and then we effectively own the rest of the shopping center for free. We're pretty close to that.

Slocomb Reed: How much of the shopping center is left?

Phil Block: There's a gym [unintelligible 00:25:49.05] shop space, call it 55,000 square feet, 60,000 square

feet, something like that.

Slocomb Reed: How long did it take you to create and sell off all the outparcels?

Phil Block: There was a timing issue for just waiting on the last, the Jollibee, because we had to kick out that Chinese restaurant and deal with that. But it was all done within two and a half years.

Slocomb Reed: Wow. That's pretty impressive.

Phil Block: We haven't refinanced yet, and the investors already have all their money back.

Slocomb Reed: Gotcha. What kind of a return were you proposing to investors when you were first acquiring this, and what does it look like now?

Phil Block: I think we had modeled and said... Again, I don't have it in front of me, so you've got to give me a little leeway. But call it a 16 or 17 net return IRR over a five-year hold, and we're certainly well into the 20s. We'll see ultimately -- how long you hold, etc, but we have a lot of very, very happy investors in that deal.

Slocomb Reed: Yeah, I believe it. Fast-forward to 2022, are you putting together any deals right now?

Phil Block: Always. Yeah. We have one in Atlanta that we are signing the contract on today or first thing Monday morning, we're finally in agreement on it, and we have a large public steel in Florida that we are in interviewing for on Tuesday; that's like best and final submitted. We're one of a few groups being interviewed and we'll see.

Slocomb Reed: Gotcha. Last question - with the deals that you're looking at right now, how do the returns that you're offering to limited partners compare to the typical B class value-add apartment, eight pref, 15% IRR over five years?

Phil Block: To be honest, the biggest difference is that our underwriting's correct and believable, if we're being honest. Most of our returns are driven by cash flow, not by the idea that we're going to get 5% annual rent growth and sell it at a four cap in a rising interest rate inflationary environment. I feel much better about our projected returns, because it's not speculative. We're paying typically double-digit cash flow out of the gate, or it's an eight or a nine, and there are pretty simple things like selling outparcels, a little bit of lease-up, that generates the added yield, it gets us to a high teen; it's why we continue to look at multi. And I understand why people like it, because I love the multifamily business. But buying things at two caps or three caps saying "We're going to have 5% or 10% rental growth forever and that's how I'm getting to a 15 or a 16" is dicey. Maybe that continues, I've been wrong for the last few years... But that is, to me, much less achievable than buying a great shopping center, paying an eight, or a nine, or a 10 day one, and just doing little bits around the edges to achieve your enhanced return.

Slocomb Reed: Phil, let me put what I think you just said in my own words, tell me if I'm wrong. The biggest difference between the underwriting you're doing and the underwriting most multifamily syndicators are doing is that the projected growth of the apartment market is predicated upon the current position of the market cycle perpetuating itself for at least a few more years. All the rent growth we're seeing, the cap rates remaining low, probably not going to compress anymore. I don't know that anyone is projecting a compressed cap rate five years from now.

But the returns that we're seeing underwritten in the apartment market are predicated upon the ability to do the things we've been able to do for the past few years, due to COVID and due to where we are in the market cycle. With shopping center deals like yours, the value play is already in the paper, the rent growth potential is effectively step-ups that may already be in place, or specific to the micro factors of the property and that individual market. Specific to the factors affecting that property and that market, the value that you're finding and seeing the spaces are underutilized.

Phil Block: I think that's right.

Slocomb Reed: And you also have opportunities for additional exit strategies and value plays in that... If you find properties with outparcels that could individually be sold at a lower cap rate, based on effectively changing the asset class to something single-tenant with a lease that's corporate-backed, you're taking something that you can buy at a higher cap and sell off a smaller portion of it at a lower cap.

Phil Block: Yeah, that's right. Everything we do is about protecting our downside first. What I struggle with, what we struggle with in the multifamily space - to compare that, since that's what you're asking about - is most of those guys today, as you know, Fannie and Freddie are not getting to the leverage that most of those syndicators need to get their deals done today. So they're getting debt fund type borrowing, which is SOFR based; so if you run it on a forward SOFR curve, you buy something at a three cap; that's what you're seeing on a value-add multifamily today. So you buy a tertiary, I don't know, 3.5, somewhere around there, and you finance SOFR-based bridge debt that's going to cost 5%. SOFR at 300 is today 3%, and it's going to be 5% in six months if you use the forward curve. You need a lot of rental growth to cover you. If things go slightly in the wrong direction, your cap rates widen, which I think they have to. Not a ton, but they probably have to a bit, because you have to have some positive leverage... And your equity is actually underwater. Not just "Hey, I'm not going to hit a 15", you're going to lose your principal.

That's what scares me. It's worked well -- if you put on low leverage long-term financing on multi and hold long term, you're fine. But a lot of the debt fund, "Hey, I'm going to get you this return in a three to five-year hold," is much riskier to me, I think, objectively, than what we're doing.

Slocomb Reed: Phil, I'm based in Cincinnati; no one here is buying a three cap. Our multifamily cap rates are higher than that, because they have to be; our deals are smaller. But to your point, the opening cap rates on deals like yours - I have friends who are operating in that space and getting day one cap rates that you just don't see in multifamily. So to your point, there's more cash flow in that right now even in Cincinnati. Phil, are you ready for our Best Ever lightning round?

Phil Block: Let's do it.

Slocomb Reed: Awesome. What is the Best Ever book you've recently read?

Phil Block: I just read Shoe Dog by Phil Knight, which was a great book.

Slocomb Reed: Shoe Dog by Phil Knight. Nice. What is your Best Ever way to give back?

Phil Block: Well, giving great investment opportunities to the retail community.

Slocomb Reed: What is the Best Ever skill you've developed as a commercial real estate investor?

Phil Block: That's a good question. I think, honestly, capital structure and protecting our downside.

Slocomb Reed: Structuring your deals to protect your downside is the best for you.

Phil Block: Absolutely, yeah. Not over-leveraging, using the right kind of debt, relationship-type borrowing. We cannot lose principal; I will not lose investors a dollar, that's our number one goal.

Slocomb Reed: Phil, what is your Best Ever advice?

Phil Block: For real estate investing?

Slocomb Reed: Yes.

Phil Block: I think it goes back to what I just said. The market has been tremendous, as we were talking about at the beginning of this podcast, for how long has this cycle been going. It's easy to forget that things can go the other way. I came out -- we own the largest special servicer; C3 was part of Centerline, and you can see... When things go wrong - I don't think we're going to have a GFC again, but what happens when you're over-levered and you don't have the type of relationship with your lender that enables you to have the time to weather that cycle... So protect yourself, make sure you don't have leverage that things go wrong and your time it badly, they take your investment. That's the number one thing, protect yourself.

Slocomb Reed: Phil, thank you. Where can our Best Ever listeners get in touch with you?

Phil Block: Our website is Easy to sign up as an investor on that. I think my cellphone is probably on the site, and my email is Would love to hear from you.

Slocomb Reed: Great. Well, Best Ever listeners, thank you for tuning in. If you've gotten value from this episode, please do subscribe to our podcast, leave us a five-star review, and share this episode with a friend who you think can gain value from this conversation we've had with Phil Block. Thank you, and have a Best Ever day.

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